Original Author:
Be_Devine
Judge Walker just issued his order denying the motion to stay his decision overturning Prop 8. But at the same time he also issued a temporary stay until August 18th to allow the Ninth Circuit time to decide whether or not it wants to stay the case pending the appeal. This is not surprising, and it is done out of respect for the Ninth Circuit. Judge Walker is simply making the call that is his (that a stay should be denied) but giving the Ninth Circuit some breathing room to make the call on its own. If the Ninth Circuit does not issue a stay by August 18th, Judge Walker's decision will take effect and marriages may resume in California. Until then, however, we remain in a holding pattern.
(Several news outlets are reporting only the first half of this story--the denial of the stay--and are saying that marriages may resume immediately. Sadly, that's not that case.)
Read the decision here.
Obama maintains the slimmest of leads,
270-268, an decrease of a 11 EVs from our
last forecast. Bottom line, the state polls are still showing McCain's convention bounce, even as the
national polls are starting to go Obama's way. We used to abuse our slow moving projections, FHQ, CNN, NBC and Rasmussen - now we love them. It's the sensitive projections, led by our friendly left blogs OpenLeft and 538, that give McCain his best numbers.

Colorado remains our tipping point state.
Map changes: Towards McCain: FL: T-> ML; NC, NC and SD, ML->M
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